What Happened?
Shares of biotechnology company Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) jumped 7% in the afternoon session after the FDA announced new regulatory guidelines that still allow quick COVID vaccine approvals for seniors and the roughly 100–200 million high-risk Americans, but impose costlier randomized, controlled clinical trials only on healthy, low-risk groups. Investors likely saw this update as beneficial, given growing agitation about the potential elimination of COVID boosters, a significant revenue stream for Moderna.
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What The Market Is Telling Us
Moderna’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 51 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 8 days ago when the stock gained 7% after the major indices popped (Nasdaq +3.4%, S&P 500 +2.5%) in response to the positive outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations, as both sides agreed to pause some tariffs for 90 days, signaling a potential turning point in ongoing tensions.
This rollback cuts U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% and Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports to 10%, giving companies breathing room to reset inventories and supply chains. However, President Trump clarified that tariffs could go "substantially higher" if a full deal with China wasn't reached during the 90-day pause, but not all the way back to the previous levels.
Still, the agreement has cooled fears of a prolonged trade war, helping stabilize expectations for global growth and trade flows and fueling renewed optimism. The optimism appeared concentrated in key trade-sensitive sectors, particularly technology, retail, and industrials, as lower tariffs reduce cost pressures and restore cross-border demand.
Moderna is down 32.3% since the beginning of the year, and at $28.45 per share, it is trading 82.9% below its 52-week high of $166.61 from May 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Moderna’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $387.23.
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