Creditsafe Study Finds Over Two-Thirds of Businesses Believe a 2025 Global Recession Is Likely Due to Tariff Shockwaves

72% of U.S. Businesses Currently Have Imports on Hold

The proposed tariff hikes by the U.S. administration have been on the tip of everyone’s tongues for the last few months. Importers are looking for ways to reduce overall costs and improve supply chain stability, while exporters are keen to retain customers. But a new study, Tariff Risks in the Supply Chain, released today by Creditsafe, reveals that tariffs could have a more detrimental impact on the global economy with 84% of U.S. businesses believing there’s a higher risk of a global recession in 2025 due to tariff shockwaves.

Additionally, 72% of the respondents confirmed that they currently have imports on hold due to the tariff uncertainty. On top of this, 37% of the respondents plan to reduce the quantity of goods they import from China, while 28% plan to import fewer goods from Mexico and 28% are cutting back on imports from Canada. These findings align with data from the U.S. Commerce Department, which shows that imports coming from Canada and China fell to their lowest levels since 2021 and 2020, respectively. And in Mexico, officials have reported that steel exports had been cut in half in May 2025. Combined, these findings illustrate the far-reaching impacts the proposed tariff hikes could have on the global economy.

Key findings from the report include:

• Cash flow crunch: Half of firms are already paying suppliers late. As the Creditsafe study reveals, tariffs have already driven 51% of U.S. businesses to pay their suppliers late. Of this 51%, 27% are paying their suppliers slightly later than usual and 24% are paying their suppliers significantly later than usual.

• Tariff dodging: 3 in 4 businesses anticipate a rise in trade fraud. According to the Creditsafe study, 73% of the respondents in our study are worried (to some degree) that higher import duties will drive an uptick in forged documents, mislabeled goods or duplicate payments. In response, nearly half (47%) of the respondents plan to be more diligent about verifying the legitimacy of suppliers they use in the next 12 months.

• Just in case hoarding: Businesses are ramping up inventory buys to ease tariff pain. , nearly half (48%) of the respondents confirmed they’ve increased their inventory buys. Of that 48%, 34% of the businesses have already increased their inventory buys by up to 25% and another 11% of businesses are increasing their buys by an additional 26-50%.

Steve Carpenter, Chief Operating Officer for North America at Creditsafe, says, “Our study suggests that the implications of tariff hikes will be far-reaching. Many U.S. businesses will find themselves struggling with rising costs, cash flow challenges, supply chain instability and even trade fraud. The key is to make sure businesses have robust and reliable financial and supplier risk data available so they can properly vet suppliers to make sure they have strong financial health and can adequately complete all orders in full and on time. This critical step could be key to maintaining strong customer-supplier relationships at a time when the tariffs are causing uncertainty and fears of losing business.”

ABOUT CREDITSAFE

Creditsafe, the global expert in credit monitoring and risk management, is the world’s most used provider of business reports. Today, over 115,000 customers globally depend on Creditsafe to make critical business decisions. Using real-time data from over 9,000 sources across over 200 countries and territories, Creditsafe’s mission is to help businesses mitigate financial, legal and compliance risks, while also empowering them to make more informed decisions. To learn more, visit our website.

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